Andre AYEW (hac)

Survival: What are the Ligue 1 relegation permutations?

Survival: What are the Ligue 1 relegation permutations?

Publish on 05/09 at 14:02 - G. BOXALL


With two rounds left of the Ligue 1 Uber Eats season, we take a look at the fixtures concerning the battle to stay in the league, and the permutations for relegation

FC Nantes, 14th

Fixtures: Lille (H), Monaco (A)

Les Canaris could assure their safety in Ligue 1 from this weekend, as Antoine Kouambaré's side currently sit on 33 points, four ahead of FC Metz who currently sit in the relegation play-off spot. The Frenchman has bettered the record of both his predecessors at the club this season, yet it if they can't pick up a win in one of their last two fixtures against Lille and ASM, they will have to hope to better the record of Metz. Nantes cannot, however, be directly relegated.

Le Havre, 15th

Fixtures: Nice (A), Marseille (H) 

The Ciel et Marine's emphatic 3-1 win against Strasbourg last weekend have given Luka Elsner's side a big boost in their hopes of survival. Le Havre currently sit on 32 points, only 3 points away from FC Metz in the play-off spot. Opta has predicted that they have a 0.01% chance of being directly relegated. Out of all the teams who have had a three point advance over the play-off position with two matches left since 2016-2017 have stayed up.

FC Metz, 16th (Relegation play-off position)

Fixtures: Strasbourg (A), PSG (H)

Metz are currently sitting in the relegation play-off spot on 29 points, and are currently the most likely side to stay there in the two remaining games (72.9% according to Opta). They do however face two difficult matches against local rivals Strasbourg and Champions PSG on the final day. Les Grenats would have to win at least one of their games, and hope Le Havre or FC Nantes lose one or both of their respective games.

FC Lorient, 17th (Direct relegation position)

Fixtures: Marseille (A), Clermont (H)

The situation is increasingly worrying for Les Merlus, but not mathematically sealed. Régis Le Bris' side currently sit in the final relegation spot on 26 points. The Breton side would have to hope that Metz lose both their games and that they at least win and draw in their fixtures against Marseille and Clermont Foot on the final day. Yet, Opta predicts they hold an 83.4% chance of staying in their current position.

Clermont Foot, 18th (Direct relegation position)

Fixtures: Lyon (H), Lorient (H)

Following their heavy loss to Monaco last weekend, Clermont are staring down the barrel of the prospect of Ligue 2 BKT football. However, they have a slim chance of being able to catch FC Metz in the play-off spot, who sit four points ahead. They would need Les Grenats to lose both their games against Strasbourg and PSG and at least a win against fellow strugglers Lorient, hoping they also lose their first game against Marseille away from home. Opta predicts they have a 6% chance of reaching the play-offs in their final two games.

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