As the Ligue 1 season draws to a close, the fight to avoid relegation is reaching its climax, with only two matchdays remaining. In the latest round of matches, FC Metz and FC Lorient suffered defeats, while Le Havre claimed a crucial victory against RC Strasbourg.
Le Havre were the major winners of Matchday 32, as the teams below them dropped points while they secured a 3-1 home win over Patrick Vieira and his team. The victory has Le Club Doyen three points above Metz, who currently occupy the playoff relegation position.
Despite the narrow margin, Opta's predictive model currently indicates that Le Havre has a 97 percent probability of remaining in Ligue 1, with a three percent chance of finishing in the relegation playoff position.
𝐌𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐯𝐞́𝐞… 🩵💙
— Havre Athletic Club ⚽️ (@HAC_Foot) May 7, 2024
Josué et Yassine se sont trouvés à deux reprises face à Strasbourg… pic.twitter.com/VGB66YfHJI
Following their injury-time defeat to Rennes, Metz now holds the highest chance of finishing in the relegation playoff position at 72.9 percent, per Opta's predictive model.
Lorient follows with a probability of 16.6 percent, while Clermont Foot maintains a slim hope at 6.1 percent. Les Lanciers can no longer mathematically finish in the top 15, while Le Havre faces less than a 0.1 percent chance of ending up in the bottom two positions.
Since the implementation of the relegation playoff in Ligue 1 during the 2016-17 season, any team holding a three-point lead over the relegation playoff position with two games remaining has successfully avoided the playoff at the end of the campaign.
Luka Elsner and his team face a tough Matchday 33 match this Friday against OGC Nice. Metz take on Strasbourg, Clermont Foot are set to take on Olympique Lyonnais and Lorient has a game against Olympique de Marseille.
If any of these squads can secure a win this weekend, the race to remain in France's top flight will be even more interesting.
